The Federal Republic of Somalia and the African Union Mission in Somalia – AMISOM

The Transition Plan to phase out AMISOM forces with Somali national forces is happening in tandem with offensive operations to deter aggression from Al Shabaab in the south with the support of the United States and other allies. Whether or not the country can establish a governance structure that is acceptable to all stakeholders and be financially sustainable will determine, to a large extent, whether AMISOM forces withdraw from Somalia by December 2021 as envisioned by the UN. 

Recent efforts to drawdown levels of AMISOM forces reflect confidence in the central authorities and their ability to implement a transition plan whereby Somali armed forces come under one command and control framework to secure the country. In February 2019, 1,000 AMISOM forces withdrew after Somali forces took over security for certain high profile locations including Mogadishu University, Mogadishu Stadium, and Jaalle Siyaad Military Academy. However, doubts remain as to whether the Somali National Army (SNA) and the Somali National Police (SNP) will be capable of providing security throughout the country in order for AMISOM to exit the country altogether. A recent Operational Readiness Assessment (ORA) prepared by AMISOM indicates the country has 20,000 pro-government forces in the regional FMS.^[i]  The U.S. is also training advanced Somali infantry units known as the Danab, to conduct offensive operations against Al-Shabaab. The UN mandate for AMISOM was renewed in May 2019, affirming the drawn down and supporting the transition plan leading up to elections. National elections are supposed to take place in 2020, paving the way for the mission to exit while Somali forces take over responsibility for security. The elections will be a monumental watershed for Somalia, if they are managed correctly and occur as planned. They will be the first universal elections in over 50 years, giving every person in the country “one vote.” A National Independent Election Commission (NIEC) was established in 2017 to draft electoral law and oversee voter registration. The electoral law is currently pending approval in Parliament. The Provisional Constitution from 2012 is also in the process of being updated. 

^[i] Relief Web, AMISOM hands over Operational Readiness Assessment findings to the Somali government, 26 February 2019. https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/amisom-hands-over-operational-readiness-assessment-findings-somali-government