Known Unknowns: Unconventional “Strategic Shocks” in Defense Strategy Development

This monograph argues that thoughtful evaluation of the most plausible defense-relevant shocks and their deliberate integration into DoD strategy and planning provides senior defense officials with key checks on excessive convention. Further, the institutionalization of deliberate net and risk assessment of defense-relevant shocks, reasoned judgments about their origins, and preliminary analysis of the most appropriate responses to them promises to routinize prudent hedging in DoD strategy and planning.

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