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Peace Operations Estimates, Themes, and Topics (POET2)

Global Trends

The Peace Operations Estimates, Themes, and Topics (POET2) are a 15-20 page overview of selected peace operation missions and organizations. They also include selected organizational estimates (i.e. United Nations Peace Operations Organization), and Political Missions (i.e. Columbia, Burundi, Libya).

They are unclassified, open source, easily digestible and accessible. They are intended to provide a comprehensive summary of the actors, issues, and considerations of various global peace activities.

The POET2s are updated quarterly or semi-annually, depending on type, and after a revised mandate is in place.

June 5, 2017
United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP)

The Republic of Cyprus, and its northern area under the control of “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus" ("TRNC"), may be in the midst of a “once-in-a-generation opportunity” to resolve its political disagreements and reunite. However, some observers suggest the ongoing negotiations will falter, yet again, because “if Afghanistan is the graveyard of empires, then Cyprus is the graveyard of diplomacy.”

The recent negotiations began two years ago, with a vision of a two-part federation. Yet there remains significant issues, such as post-reunification security arrangements and land and property dispute resolutions.

April 12, 2017
United Nations Support Mission in Libya

Libya remains in chaos as a failed state since the 2011 uprising against then-leader, Muammar al-Qadhafi, supported by a military intervention led by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and endorsed by the United Nations (UN). Recent political dialogue intended to re-start efforts at national government cohesion have yet to resolve any of the current disputes that prevent further progress on the December 2015 Libyan Political Agreement (LPA), the plan to govern post-Qadhafi Libya.

April 1, 2017
African Union Mission in Somalia and United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia

Despite the recent election of a new president, Somalia remains one of the most fragile states in the world. It is vulnerable to terrorism and criminal entities, activities, and enterprises as well as crippling food insecurity and displaced persons.

March 31, 2017
United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Peace in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) remains precarious, with several indications of genocide and/or civil war in the past six months, and a recent surge of violence that suggests “a dramatic escalation of conflict.” Considered corrupt by many observers, the incumbent president, Joseph Kabila, continues to flouting the law in order to remain in power.

March 28, 2017
Burundi Crisis (2015-Present)

Only two years ago, many observers considered Burundi a successful model of a modern democratic nation in Africa. However, in the spring of 2015, President Pierre Nkurunziza announced his intention to campaign for a third-term (five years) in office, which spurred the conflict of the past two years. The discord, which rapidly devolved from peaceful demonstrations to violence, is predominately polarized between the supporters of the President and a disjointed, multi-faceted opposition.