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Peace Operations Estimates, Themes, and Topics (POET2)

Global Trends

The Peace Operations Estimates, Themes, and Topics (POET2) are a 15-20 page overview of selected peace operation missions and organizations. They also include selected organizational estimates (i.e. United Nations Peace Operations Organization), and Political Missions (i.e. Columbia, Burundi, Libya).

They are unclassified, open source, easily digestible and accessible. They are intended to provide a comprehensive summary of the actors, issues, and considerations of various global peace activities.

The POET2s are updated quarterly or semi-annually, depending on type, and after a revised mandate is in place.

July 10, 2017
United Nations Multidimensional Stabilization Mission in Mali

The peace process in Mali is at a critical juncture. Notwithstanding some progress made over the past 18 months since the signing of the peace agreement, the signatory parties continue to disagree on key interim measures, thus stalling the process for all other provisions. Although the peace process is complex and challenging, it behooves the signatory parties to act promptly and decisively to fulfil their obligations to the Malian people.

February 10, 2017
United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic and United Nations Regional Office for Central Africa

Although the February 2016 elections were peaceful and President Faustin-Archange Touadéra’s new government was confirmed, Central African Republic (CAR) remains one of the ten “most fragile” states, ranking third on the 2016 index. Almost a year since the installation of the new government, and over two years after its activation, MINUSCA is still struggling to have a significant impact on the situation.

July 6, 2017
United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (Golan Heights)

The ongoing mandate review by the United States (US) Ambassador to the UN suggests a refocus on political solutions to ongoing peace operations. Implied in such “cost-cutting” discussions is the perception of failure of long-term missions such as UNDOF. Yet most observers suggest that UNDOF achieved success—and continues to maintain it—in that Syria and Israel have not resumed open warfare in the past four decades, despite the provocations of the greater regional transnational terrorism and the Syrian internal conflict. Perhaps in part an acknowledgement of this success, this operating year’s UN expense plan saw the UNDOF budget increased by over 30%, in order to facilitate the peacekeepers’ return to Syrian (Bravo) observation positions that were abandoned after the attacks on peacekeepers in 2013 and 2014.

June 7, 2017
United Nations Mission in Colombia

In December 2016, the western hemisphere’s longest insurgency in modern history (52 years) came to a close with the Colombian Congress’ approval of a revised peace deal between the government and the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia-Ejército del Pueblo (FARC-EP, or simply FARC).

June 5, 2017
United Nations Operation in Côte d'Ivoire

After thirteen years, the UNOCI Mission formally concludes on 30 June 2017. The redeployment of the Mission forces began last year and was complete by February 2017. The civilian staff completed its withdrawal by April 2017.

The UNOCI conclusion marks “the most recent successful completion of a peacekeeping operation in West Africa since the UN mission in Sierra Leone in 2005.” However, some remind observers that the UNOCI fulfillment also marks the most recent successful completion of any UN peacekeeping mission—regardless of geography.

June 5, 2017
United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP)

The Republic of Cyprus, and its northern area under the control of “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus" ("TRNC"), may be in the midst of a “once-in-a-generation opportunity” to resolve its political disagreements and reunite. However, some observers suggest the ongoing negotiations will falter, yet again, because “if Afghanistan is the graveyard of empires, then Cyprus is the graveyard of diplomacy.”

The recent negotiations began two years ago, with a vision of a two-part federation. Yet there remains significant issues, such as post-reunification security arrangements and land and property dispute resolutions.

May 16, 2017
United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei

Conflict in the Abyei region is at least a half-century old, and certainly predates the independence of South Sudan from the Republic of the Sudan--although some observers also suggest the oil-rich Abyei region was the “flash point” for the conflict that led to the separation of those States.

The Abyei Area Administration was established on 31 August 2008, permitting its citizens to be simultaneously members of the states of South Kurdufan (Republic of the Sudan) and Northern Bahr el Ghazal (South Sudan) until a referendum was held in 2011. However, the Administration has not yet been fully implemented, nor did the referendum occur as planned.

April 18, 2017
United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti and United Nations Mission for Justice Support in Haiti

The new president of Haiti, Jovenel Moïse, was inaugurated on February 7, 2017, for a term of five (5) years. He is the first democratically-elected Haitian president in several years, having endured a two year election process that was impacted by accusations of fraud, corruption, and natural disaster. The remainder of the new government was sworn in on March 21, 2017. Both the new president and the new prime minister—and many of the new Cabinet—have negligible political expertise.

April 12, 2017
United Nations Support Mission in Libya

Libya remains in chaos as a failed state since the 2011 uprising against then-leader, Muammar al-Qadhafi, supported by a military intervention led by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and endorsed by the United Nations (UN). Recent political dialogue intended to re-start efforts at national government cohesion have yet to resolve any of the current disputes that prevent further progress on the December 2015 Libyan Political Agreement (LPA), the plan to govern post-Qadhafi Libya.

April 1, 2017
African Union Mission in Somalia and United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia

Despite the recent election of a new president, Somalia remains one of the most fragile states in the world. It is vulnerable to terrorism and criminal entities, activities, and enterprises as well as crippling food insecurity and displaced persons.